Bipartisan coalition on track for slim margin in Alaska House after ranked choice tabulations

Alaska election workers finished counting ballots Wednesday and tabulated ranked choice results in eight legislative races where the top finisher did not have an outright majority of votes.

The batch of around 6,000 ballots tallied Wednesday, which brought the total turnout to over 340,000 voters, flipped the outcome in one Alaska House seat that could prove pivotal for the eventual majority of the chamber.

In a North Anchorage seat that includes the expansive Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson military installation, Republican challenger David Nelson is beating Democratic incumbent Rep. Cliff Groh by 23 votes after Groh narrowly led Nelson in previous counts.

Still, the results showed a coalition of Democrats and independents, along with at least two moderate Republicans, is narrowly favored to flip control of the Alaska House, which is currently led by a mostly Republican majority. The coalition — whose leaders announced its formation the day after the election — is currently set to have 21 members, the bare minimum needed to form a majority, unless they are joined by additional Republicans.

In a brief interview Wednesday evening, Groh said he’s reviewing his options, including possibly requesting a recount. Under Alaska law, candidates can request a recount within five days of when results are formally certified, which is expected to occur by Nov. 30. The state is required to pick up the tab for a recount if the margin in the race is under 0.5% or under 20 votes. Otherwise, the recount is completed only if those requesting it are willing to cover the cost.

“We are confident we have 21 and are leaving the doors open for those who want to help move the state forward these next two years,” said Kodiak Republican Rep. Louise Stutes, who is slated for a leadership position in the coalition.

Wasilla Republican Rep. Cathy Tilton, who is currently serving as House speaker, said she is “thrilled” with Nelson’s lead in the North Anchorage seat.

“I think what this does is it opens the door to have more negotiations or discussions with the folks who looking at joining the Democrat coalition,” Tilton said, later adding that “a lot can happen between now and when we go to Juneau.”

In the Alaska Senate, tabulations cemented the likelihood that a bipartisan majority will continue to control the chamber, mirroring current leadership.

[Ranked choice voting and open primaries retained in Alaska after final ballot count]

Under Alaska’s election laws, the top four vote-getters in legislative primaries advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. Voters can then rank the candidates in the general election by order of preference.

In most of the 50 legislative races on the ballot this year, the winner was determined without taking ranked choice voting into account, because the top vote-getter either received more than half of first-choice votes; faced a single opponent; or faced no opponent at all.

[Begich defeats Peltola, flipping Alaska’s lone U.S. House seat]

Three out of 10 Senate races came down to a ranked choice tabulation. Five out of 40 House seats were determined by tabulation. Here’s what you need to know.

Jimmie defeats McCormick

In a Western Alaska district encompassing Bethel and the Lower Yukon-Kuskokwim delta, Democratic incumbent Rep. CJ McCormick was unseated by fellow Democrat Nellie Jimmie.

Jimmie, of Toksook Bay, had 36.6% of first-choice votes to McCormick’s 32.3%. Willy Keppel of the Alaska Veterans Party had 25.7%. Victoria Sosa, a Democrat who dropped out of the race late in the campaign and endorsed Jimmie, received 5%.

After the tabulation, Jimmie beat McCormick in a 51%-49% split.

In her campaign, Jimmie emphasized representation of rural and traditional ways of life. She defeated McCormick, a lifelong Bethel resident who became the youngest member of the Legislature when he was elected in 2022 at age 25.

Burke flips control of rural seat

In a three-way race to represent a district encompassing the Northwest Arctic and North Slope, Democrat Robyn Burke defeated the nonpartisan incumbent.

Thomas Baker of Kotzebue was appointed to fill the House seat last year after the previous representative, Josiah Patkotak, was elected to serve as North Slope Borough mayor. Baker changed his party affiliation from Republican to undeclared shortly before the election. He faced challengers Burke, of Utqiagvik, and Kotzebue Democrat Saima Chase.

In the first round of voting, Burke had 46.7% of first-choice votes, Chase had 28.3% and Baker had 24.3%. After Baker was eliminated, Burke defeated Chase in a 60.1%-39.9% split.

Vance wins in tabulation

Homer Republican incumbent Rep. Sarah Vance won reelection to the southern Kenai Peninsula district after ranked choice voting kicked in.

Vance had 46.9% of first-choice votes. Nonpartisan challenger Brent Johnson had 43.4% of the vote. Another Republican candidate, Dawson Slaughter, had 9.4% of the vote.

Slaughter’s voters generally preferred Vance. After the tabulation, Vance beat Johnson in a roughly 52%-48% split.

Moore narrowly defeats Menard

Three Republican candidates mounted campaigns for an open Wasilla House seat vacated by Republican Rep. Jesse Sumner.

Elexie Moore was leading after initial results were counted with 37.3% of first choice votes. Steve Menard had 35.6%. Jessica Wright had 25.6%.

After Wright was eliminated, her voters favored Menard, but Moore still narrowly won by 13 votes after the tabulation process. Ultimately, Moore defeated Menard 50.1%-49.9%.

Schwanke wins open Interior seat

In an open Interior seat vacated by Republican Rep. Mike Cronk, who ran instead for the Senate, candidates included two Republicans, a Democrat and a Libertarian. The race was won by Republican Rebecca Schwanke.

Schwanke was leading the first round with 35.7% of the vote. Democrat Brandon Kowalski was in second with 33%. Republican Pamela Goode was in third with 25.5%. Libertarian James Fields was in fourth with 5.5%.

In the tabulation, Fields and Goode were eliminated. After the tabulation, Schwanke beat Kowalski in a 56.6%-43.4% split.

Other House races

An open House district representing Ketchikan and other Southeast communities flipped from nonpartisan to Republican with the victory of Jeremy Bynum, who had a majority of votes in a three-way race that included two nonpartisan candidates. The seat represents one of two pick-ups for Republicans in the state House, with the departure of outgoing Ketchikan independent Rep. Dan Ortiz.

An open South Anchorage seat vacated by Republican Rep. Laddie Shaw flipped to independent control with the victory of nonpartisan candidate Ky Holland over Republican Lucy Bauer.

Democrat Ted Eischeid is slated to flip an East Anchorage seat currently held by Republican Rep. Stanley Wright. Eischeid was beating Wright in a 52.4%-47.4% split after the Wednesday ballot count.

An open South Anchorage seat remained in Republican control with the victory of Republican Mia Costello over Democrat Denny Wells, who was the top fundraising House candidate this year. The seat had been held by Rep. Tom McKay, who narrowly defeated Wells in 2022. McKay did not seek reelection.

Republican Jubilee Underwood is slated to unseat Republican Rep. David Eastman in a Wasilla race. Underwood, a conservative Republican, campaigned on working more collaboratively with the GOP caucus in the House. Eastman was notorious among his colleagues for his uncompromising tactics. Though both candidates had the same party affiliation, Eastman’s departure can be seen as a pick-up for Republicans, as he had been repeatedly rejected from the GOP caucus.

Merrick defeats Goecker

In one of the most high-profile legislative races of the year, Republican incumbent Sen. Kelly Merrick defeated more conservative GOP challenger Jared Goecker after ranked choice votes were taken into account.

Merrick had faced criticism for her across-the-aisle work in the Senate’s bipartisan coalition. Goecker promised a more conservative vision on both social and fiscal issues, and was backed by the Alaska Republican Party.

Merrick received 46.3% of first-choice votes, while Goecker received 39.3%.

Democratic candidate Lee Hammermeister also appeared on the ballot, capturing 14.1% of first-choice votes with a self-funded campaign. After Hammermeister was eliminated, the majority of his votes were redistributed to Merrick. After the tabulation, Merrick defeated Goecker 55.5%-44.5%.

Bjorkman defeats Carpenter

In a Kenai Peninsula district, Republican incumbent Sen. Jesse Bjorkman defeated a challenge from more conservative Rep. Ben Carpenter, who criticized Bjorkman’s work in the bipartisan majority coalition.

Bjorkman won 47.8% of first-choice votes, while Carpenter won 40.6%. Tina Wegener registered as a Democrat to run in the race but previously indicated she was a supporter of conservative Republicans. She did not mount a serious campaign, yet earned 11.3% of first-choice votes.

Wegener’s voters largely favored Bjorkman as their second-choice candidate. Ultimately, Bjorkman defeated Carpenter 54.7%-45.3%.

Kaufman defeats Park

In a South Anchorage district, Republican incumbent Sen. James Kaufman defeated a repeat challenge from Democrat Janice Park, who also ran against Kaufman in 2022.

In a surprise outcome, Park had received more votes than Kaufman in the August primary, fueling a well-funded campaign leading up to the general election. But ultimately, Kaufman comfortably led Park in the general election, receiving 47.9% of the vote compared to Park’s 45%.

Republican Harold Borbridge also ran, receiving 6.9% of the vote. The ranked choice tabulation revealed that Borbridge’s voters favored Kaufman as their second choice. Ultimately, Kaufman defeated Park in a 52.8%-47.2% split.

During the campaign, Borbridge criticized Kaufman for joining a bipartisan majority coalition. It was not immediately clear whether Kaufman would again join the majority coalition, or choose to caucus with a Republican-only minority.

Other Senate races

In the most expensive legislative race of the year, Democratic incumbent Sen. Scott Kawasaki defeated Republican challenger Leslie Hajdukovich in a head-to-head contest. Kawasaki defeated Hajdukovich in a 51.4%-48.3% split, again defying the partisan tilt of the district. The Democratic incumbent won even as Republican President-elect Donald Trump handily carried the district.

In an open Interior seat vacated by outgoing Republican Sen. Click Bishop, Republican Rep. Mike Cronk comfortably defeated nonpartisan candidate Savannah Fletcher. Cronk had 51.9% of the vote while Fletcher had 41.5%. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Bert Williams had 6.4%. Cronk has yet to comment publicly on whether he would join a bipartisan majority.

In an upset, Mat-Su Borough Assembly Member Rob Yundt, a Republican, defeated GOP incumbent Sen. David Wilson. Yundt received a majority of votes in a three-Republican contest that also included Stephen Wright, an Air Force veteran.

Yundt, who captured 52.7% of the vote, campaigned on limiting the rights of transgender athletes, promoting the timber industry, and growing the size of the Permanent Fund dividend. He has previously been fined by the federal Environmental Protection Agency for violating the Clean Water Act.

Yundt’s victory means the Senate majority coalition is guaranteed to shrink by one seat. Bishop had been a reliable coalition member, but Yundt is aligned with conservative Republicans currently serving in the minority.

Democratic incumbent Sen. Matt Claman easily won a head-to-head contest against Republican Liz Vazquez in a West Anchorage district. Claman was one of the most well-funded candidates of the cycle, having raised well over $200,000.

In East Anchorage, Democratic incumbent Sen. Forrest Dunbar easily won against nonpartisan candidate Cheronda Smith, who did not mount a serious campaign.

Out of 10 Senate races on the ballot, two incumbents ran unopposed — Sen. Jesse Kiehl, D-Juneau, and Sen. Donny Olson, D-Golovin.