Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom drops out of U.S. House race

Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom said Friday that she is withdrawing from the race for the state’s lone U.S. House seat in a move meant to increase the likelihood of a Republican winning the seat in November.

In votes tallied so far from Tuesday’s primary election, Dahlstrom, a Republican, was in third with just less than 20% of the vote behind incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, who had 50%, and Republican Nick Begich III, who was in second with 27%.

“I entered this race because Alaskans deserve better representation than what we have received from Mary Peltola in Washington,” Dahlstrom said in a prepared statement released Friday morning. “At this time, the best thing I can do to see that goal realized is to withdraw my name from the general election ballot and end my campaign.”

Dahlstrom did not endorse Begich in her statement. The Dahlstrom campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment Friday morning.

Begich thanked Dahlstrom in a social media post for “running a strong campaign” and “for her continued service to Alaska.”

“Today we move forward unified in the effort to replace Mary Peltola,” Begich said.

National Republican groups poured millions of dollars into a campaign supporting Dahlstrom, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, running ads on her behalf and contributing to her campaign. In his endorsement message, Trump criticized Begich, saying he “has Democrat tendencies” and that “he refused to get out of this race last time, which caused the Republicans to lose this important seat.”

Dahlstrom, who has served as lieutenant governor since 2022 and previously served as commissioner of the Alaska Department of Corrections, had also been endorsed by Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy and U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, among other national GOP figures.

Johnson was quick to pivot on Friday, endorsing Begich on social media. He called Begich a “commonsense conservative” and said Alaska’s U.S. House seat is “key to growing” the GOP majority. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who had also previously backed Dahlstrom, endorsed Begich on Friday — as did Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, writing that flipping Alaska’s seat “is a top priority for House Republicans.”

Begich is a businessman who first ran for Congress in 2022, coming in third behind Peltola and former Gov. Sarah Palin, who was endorsed by Trump. Begich is a member of a prominent family of Alaska Democrats. His grandfather, Nick Begich I, was elected to Alaska’s U.S. House seat as a Democrat in 1972. His uncle, Mark Begich, is a Democrat who served as U.S. senator between 2009 and 2015. Though he did not have Trump’s endorsement, Begich has been a vocal supporter of the former president.

Peltola, the first Alaska Native woman to fill the state’s congressional seat, has pitched herself as a moderate who can appeal to Democrats, Republicans and undeclared voters. In a statement Friday, Peltola campaign manager Elisa Rios said that Peltola was “so proud to have received more than 50% of the vote” in the primary election.

“We think voters will make the same choice this November,” Rios said.

Alaska’s 2024 primary saw low turnout with 16% of registered voters casting a ballot. Political observers have said that low participation rate means it is difficult to make assumptions about November results based on the primary.

In 2022, Peltola appeared to benefit from Republicans’ reticence to rank more than one candidate. This year, Republicans have continued to question ranked choice voting and open primaries.

[Alaskans will vote on whether to repeal ranked choice voting, state Supreme Court rules]

Matt Shuckerow, a political consultant for Alaska Republican candidates, said that one Republican standard bearer in the race would improve the party’s chances to flip the seat.

“It’s been fairly clear from the beginning that two Republicans against one Democrat in this race was always going to be a much tougher path to victory, and Nancy understood that. I think Nick understood that, and frankly, I think that that’s why Nancy got out of this race. She deserves a lot of credit here,” Shuckerow said.

A challenge for Begich would be defining the “stark contrast” between himself and Peltola when it came to issues like resource development in Alaska, he added.

In Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, if the top vote-getter receives less than 50% of the vote, an instant runoff occurs, until one candidate gets a majority. Peltola has more than 50% of primary votes. If that result was repeated in November, no instant runoff would occur and she would be declared the outright winner.

Jim Lottsfeldt, a campaign consultant for an independent group boosting Peltola, argued that Republicans would have had a better chance of electoral success if both Dahlstrom and Begich appeared on the ballot — combining support from different groups of independents and Republicans.

“I was tasked before with coming up with effective ads that punch through the arguments made by Dahlstrom and punch through the arguments made by Begich. I now have half the amount of work to do,” said Lottsfeldt.

The National Republican Congressional Committee had supported Dahlstrom, but by Friday morning, the NRCC had shifted to backing Begich as a “great choice” for Alaska.

“Nancy Dahlstrom has led a life of service and I want to thank her for stepping into the arena this year. Her selfless decision today puts Alaskans and the team first, allowing voters to unite around a single Republican,” said Richard Hudson, chair of the NRCC, in a prepared statement.

The Alaska Republican Party, which had not endorsed Begich or Dahlstrom or publicly called for either candidate to withdraw, also quickly issued a statement in support of Begich. Carmela Warfield, the party’s chair, called Dahlstrom’s decision to drop out “courageous.”

“As we move forward, I encourage all Alaska Republicans, and all Alaskans to unite and support Nick Begich to take back our lone Congressional seat and defeat Mary Peltola,” she said.

According to August filings with the Federal Election Commission, Peltola had more than $2.8 million on hand for the final push to November. Meanwhile, Begich had just under $173,000 and Dahlstrom had $318,000. But that doesn’t include millions of dollars raised by independent groups to boost the candidates.

Overall, Peltola has raised over $7.5 million and spent just under $5.4 million this election cycle. Begich had raised $983,000 and spent $852,000 by early August. In the same period, Dahlstrom had raised $912,000, but had spent comparatively less before the primary election — just under $600,000.

According to OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan campaign finance tracking group, 93.65% of U.S. House candidates who raised the most money won their races in the 2022 election.

Shuckerow said a big unanswered question is whether Dahlstrom voters will now back Begich in the general election. Another question is whether national Republican groups will now invest in Begich after spending big on Dahlstrom.

“I feel pretty confident that that they’ll commit to spending in Alaska,” Shuckerow said. “For them, this is considered their No. 1 pickup seat in the nation.”

Alaska’s seat in the U.S. House represents one of few swing districts across the nation. The seat is one of five nationally that is held by a Democrat, but which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020.

Under Alaska’s open primary and ranked choice voting system, the top four vote-getters in the primary advance to the general election in November. Dahlstrom’s withdrawal means that Peltola, Begich, Republican Matthew Salisbury and Alaska Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe look set to appear on the general election ballot. Salisbury and Howe have not reported any significant campaign funds.

As of Friday, Salisbury had 0.62% of votes counted, amounting to 602 votes. Howe had 0.57%, or 547. Thousands of uncounted by-mail ballots could shift results.

Salisbury said he voted for Peltola in 2022 but was disappointed by her tenure in Congress. He said he planned to focus his campaign on three issues: ending bottom-trawling, ending corporate ownership of single-family homes, and funding Social Security.

Howe is a perennial candidate who opposes taxation. In the 2022 primary, he received less than 1% of the vote in the governor’s race.

Dahlstrom, as lieutenant governor, is the top elected official to oversee Alaska’s elections. Kelly Howell, a spokesperson for the lieutenant governor’s office, said that Dahlstrom had stepped back from day-to-day operations at the Alaska Division of Elections to avoid “even the appearance of any conflict” during her congressional run.

“That will change now that she has withdrawn from the congressional race,” Howell said by email.